Bush hit hard in primary season
By Nancy Benac, Associated Press, 2/20/2004

WASHINGTON -- The presidential primary season has been good for Democrats and tough on President Bush, according to a national poll released yesterday.

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press indicated that the public's impression of the Democratic field has been improving as the candidates have battled for their party's nomination -- with 45 percent now viewing the field positively, compared to 31 percent a month earlier. Bush's overall favorability rating still is positive at 53 percent, but it was 72 percent last April, shortly after the fall of Baghdad, and is at the low point of his presidency.

Likewise, Bush's job-approval rating has dropped to 48 percent, the first time in his presidency that it has fallen below 50 percent, according to the poll.

"I'm a little surprised by how negative people are toward Bush personally," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew poll. He said the negative views of Bush might be linked to the high number of people who are paying attention to the failed hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Three-fourths say they are following the issue very or fairly closely.

When the pollsters asked people for a one-word description of Bush, equal shares gave positive and negative responses. Last May positive answers outnumbered the negative 2-to-1. The most frequently used negative word this time was "liar," which was not used last May. The most frequently used positive description this time was "honest," the same as last May.

The shifting perceptions of Bush and the Democrats have been accompanied by changing expectations for the outcome of the general election this fall -- 51 percent now think Bush will win, compared with 61 percent a month earlier. Among Democrats, 25 percent now think Bush will win; 38 percent did in January.

Kohut said Republicans did not enjoy a similar boost in 1996, the last time there was a contested primary to determine who would take on an incumbent president, Bill Clinton. "When Bob Dole seemed likely to be the nominee, there wasn't this big bounce for him," Kohut said. "This has been a surprise how much attention the public's paid and how favorably they've responded to the Democrats generally."