http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hammit25feb25,1,641848.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions
COMMENTARY
Balancing Lives Against Lucre
Risk analysis is no soulless monster of science. It's a valuable way to make choices that help the most people at the least cost.
By James K. Hammitt and Milton C. Weinstein
James K. Hammitt is the director of the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. Milton C. Weinstein is the director of the Harvard Program on Economic Evaluation of Medical Technology.

February 25, 2004

A risk that kills thousands of Americans every year surely seems like something the government should regulate. But what if that risk also comes with a benefit, providing people with a service that improves their lives?

Take the case of cellphones and driving. Drivers using cellphones cause 2,600 deaths and 330,000 injuries in the United States a year, according to our estimates. But Americans are deeply attached to their cellphones and are willing to spend billions of dollars for the convenience and business and social contact that cellphones provide when they are driving. A ban would save lives but deprive people of a benefit they badly want.

The decision is not as obvious as it seems. If you were in charge, what would you do?

…money and time are limited, even when it comes to saving lives. And a million dollars spent protecting against one risk might save more lives if spent protecting against another.

Here's a simple example of how risk analysis can work. Some women who get Pap smears are told that their results are uncertain and that they should get follow-up tests every year. Totaled across all the women tested, annual follow-ups cost about $800,000 per year of life saved, according to our analysis. On the other hand, if those women got follow-up tests every two years, the reduction in cervical cancer rates would be almost the same — while the cost per year of life saved would decline to about $200,000. That means that the healthcare system would save tens of millions of dollars per year that could be used to screen more women or to provide other health benefits.