Two Tales of American Jobs
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

Washington

FOR more than a year, Bush administration officials and Republicans in Congress have seized on an intriguing statistical puzzle to suggest that job creation in the United States may be much stronger than it appears at first glance.

The puzzle is the enormous divergence between the two surveys that are used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure job creation and unemployment. The payroll survey, which is based on a monthly poll of 400,000 employers, shows a loss of more than two million jobs since 2001. The household survey, based on questions posed to people in 50,000 households, shows an increase of more than 500,000 jobs over the same period.

If the payroll survey is correct, Mr. Bush is on track to be the first president since Herbert Hoover to complete a term in office with fewer jobs than when he started. If the household survey is correct, Mr. Bush can claim credit for creating jobs despite the blows of a recession, terrorist attacks and two wars.

The household survey also seems to support a political theory: that many people dropped from the company payrolls are not unemployed but rather self-employed. While the payroll survey suggests economic malaise, the household survey implies entrepreneurial energy.

"The household survey shows that we're at an all-time high in employment,'' said Senator Don Nickles, Republican of Oklahoma and chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, at a hearing this month. "It shows that, at least if you look at this trend, the employment situation has improved rather substantially.''

Administration officials are more cautious.

"At this point, the gap between the payroll and the household data continues to be a puzzle,'' said N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in a speech this month. But, he added, the number of self-employed workers has risen by 326,000 in the last three years and the "extent of self-employment has changed as the economy has changed.''

Unfortunately for the optimists, the Federal Reserve has just thrown cold water on the household data. It concludes that the gloomy payroll data is essentially accurate and that the household survey is probably off base.