Prometheus 6: The return of the son of the thought experiment

October 16, 2003

The return of the son of the thought experiment

Remember my thought experiment on what would happen if all necessary goods and services could be produced by 25% of the available work force? And Paul Krugman's op-ed that, though not directed at me of course, showed how the "lump of labor fallacy" explained why that wasn't even a question to ask? Well, Calpundit links to a bit in the L.A. Times by Marshall Brain (what a name!) that's pretty much on the same subject.

Robots will start performing every essential task in the 2040 time frame. They will grow, package and transport all of the food we eat. Robots will build all of the housing we live in. Robots will manufacture and sell all consumer products. In 1903, when the Wright brothers' first rickety airplane took to the air, it was impossible to imagine that the B-52 bomber would be able to fly halfway around the world carrying 70,000 pounds of bombs just 50 year later. In the same way, it is impossible for us to imagine robots taking all the jobs in today's economy in 2050. Yet they will. Robots in the workforce are as inevitable as jet aircraft were.

With robots doing the work, we should all be on perpetual vacation. Unfortunately, in the structure of our current economy, that is not what will happen.

This is the same problem we recognized here, and Mr. Brain (I'm REALLY fighting the urge to make a Pinky joke) says:

To achieve true economic freedom, we must break a fundamental doctrine in today's economy: the link between work and income. Robots will be doing all the work, so this link becomes meaningless. We need a new paradigm.

Wrong link. See, the ideal state is, depending on your outlook, perfect efficiency or perfect indolence. Maximum output from minimum input means the ideal state is to get everything for doing nothing. This is a common thread stretching from royalty owning everything through investment capitalism, the trend in labor negotiations, playing Lotto, the fight against inheritance taxes, everything. Success is, by definition, breaking the link between work and income.

The problems caused by the transition to a robotic economy will be twofold. The easier one is the link between income and subsistence. The harder nut will be the link between work and self-image.

Posted by P6 at October 16, 2003 06:33 AM | Trackback URL: http://www.prometheus6.org/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1994

Comments

I don't get paid to make something. I get paid to think, so I guess I'm set for 2041. I've already broken his mythical link. It is like the old lawyer joke:

A guy goes to a lawyer, and says, "my old partner is suing me for $50,000! You gotta help me!"
The lawyers says, "No problem, all I have to do is write a letter and this will go away." The lawyers does so, and sends a bill.

The guy comes back as soon as he gets the bill. "What the hell is this? $5000 for a letter? My secretary could have typed that for a dollar!"

The lawyers says, "I'm sorry, that's my error. I'll send you an itemized bill." He sent this bill:

One letter: $1
Knowing what to say in the letter: $4999

Posted by at October 16, 2003 12:40 PM

That's simply the truth. There are knowledge workers that are going to be around for at least another century.

Posted by at October 16, 2003 01:19 PM