Do not make the mistake of thinking that because my conclusion is the same as another person's that my reasoning is the same
November 7, 2003
"We've seen a real turnaround this year," Treasury Secretary John W. Snow said this week, "and the recovery is clearly solidifying." Not so fast, please.
Just as the administration was embarrassed in Iraq by prematurely stating "mission accomplished," so it may regret declaring economic triumph. Yes, consumers are still buying pretty vigorously and productivity is zooming. Low interest rates play a big role, and some credit may well be due to hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts directed mainly to the wealthy. The nation enjoyed a modest rise of 57,000 new jobs in September.
But there's still a "but" in the good news. Almost 2.6 million jobs have disappeared since President Bush entered office. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate will remain above 6% next year, not including the 2.1 million long-term jobless who've given up looking for work. The normal, historical rate for creation of new jobs in an expansion is 250,000 to 300,000 a month � a number out of reach in this "recovery."
Posted by P6 at November 7, 2003 04:16 AM | Trackback URL: http://www.prometheus6.org/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2214