The Oil Price to Be Scared Of
By JAD MOUAWAD

Once upon a time, not too long ago, the prospect of crude-oil futures hitting $50 a barrel sent waves of anxiety over consumers, business executives and politicians, evoking the specter of gasoline rationing, not to mention a global recession and general economic mayhem.

Today, the $50 mark is a mere dot in the rear-view mirror and the economy keeps growing at a healthy clip. Is there another benchmark - a new number that everyone is scared of?

For now, the number to watch is $86.

In early 1981, when the Iraq-Iran war caused an oil shock, a barrel of oil cost the equivalent of $86 in today's dollars. That number still seems a long way away, and OPEC is promising to pump itself dry to meet demand.

But consider this: it has taken less than eight months for oil prices to jump by $20 - from $46 to $66. Over the last year, oil prices have increased by 54 percent. In the past week alone, futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a record - $67.10 on Friday - the highest since crude oil began trading on the exchange in 1983.

At this rate, oil prices might hit $86 a barrel sometime next spring.