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Prometheus 6

All respect and no restraint

The official unemployment rate is the emptiest statistic ever created

I almost called it useless but it's not.

“The unemployment rate is giving you a misleading impression of some of the adjustments that are taking place,” said John E. Silvia, chief economist of Wachovia in Charlotte. “Hours cut is a big deal. People still have a job, but they are losing income.”

Many experts see the swift cutback in hours as a precursor of a more painful chapter to come: broader layoffs. Some struggling companies are holding on to workers and cutting shifts while hoping to ride out hard times. If business does not improve, more extreme measures could follow.

“The change in working hours is the canary in the coal mine,” said Susan J. Lambert of the University of Chicago, a professor of social service administration and an expert in low-wage employment. “First you see hours get short, and eventually more people will get laid off.”

A Hidden Toll on Employment: Cut to Part Time
By PETER S. GOODMAN

The number of Americans who have seen their full-time jobs chopped to part time because of weak business has swelled to more than 3.7 million — the largest figure since the government began tracking such data more than half a century ago.

The loss of pay has become a primary source of pain for millions of American families, reinforcing the downturn gripping the economy. Paychecks are shrinking just as home prices plunge and gas prices soar, furthering the austerity across the nation.

“I either stop eating, or stop using anything I can,” said Marvin L. Zinn, a clerk at a Walgreens drugstore in St. Joseph, Mich., who has seen his take-home pay drop to about $550 every two weeks from about $650, as his weekly hours have dropped to 37.5 from 44 in recent months.

Mr. Zinn has run up nearly $2,000 in credit card debt to buy food. He has put off dental work. He no longer attends church, he said, “because I can’t afford to drive.”

On the surface, the job market is weak but hardly desperate. Layoffs remain less frequent than in many economic downturns, and the unemployment rate is a relatively modest 5.5 percent. But that figure masks the strains of those who are losing hours or working part time because they cannot find full-time work — a stealth force that is eroding American spending power.

All told, people the government classifies as working part time involuntarily — predominantly those who have lost hours or cannot find full-time work — swelled to 5.3 million last month, a jump of greater than 1 million over the last year.

These workers now amount to 3.7 percent of all those employed, up from 3 percent a year ago, and the highest level since 1995.

“This increase is startling,” said Steve Hipple, an economist at the Labor Department.

The loss of hours has been affecting men in particular — and Hispanic men more so. Among those who were forced into part-time work from the spring of 2007 to the spring of 2008, 73 percent were men and 35 percent were Hispanic.

Bull!

As I said yesterday, I think that the unemployment rate is much higher, cirtainly not the "relatively modest 5.5 percent" being reported. But I think this is an indictment on the "Conservative brand", at least economically. For the past 8 years the Republican party have largely gotten their way, which is why the rich have gotten embarissingly richer since they have been in office. I think the nation has bleeker days ahead, past recession.

As I said yesterday, I think

As I said yesterday, I think that the unemployment rate is much higher, cirtainly not the "relatively modest 5.5 percent" being reported.

Yup. And that everyone believes it's that low is the only reason things haven't blown the hell up already.

Bald-faced lies.

The government makes no secret of its deceptive means for counting unemployment: "Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work."

That means if there's no work in your area, or if you don't bother cuz you know they ain't hiring black folks, or if for any reason you haven't actually went down for an interview or job center or submitted a resume in the past month, you're no longer "unemployed," you're just "not in the labor force."

In my opinion a more useful stat is the "labor force participation rate," which currently stands at about 66.1% after dipping to 65.9% earlier this year. The last time before this year that the rate was below 66 percent was way back in 1988. Basically we're saying that 1/3 of people over 16 are not employed. Of course, lots of those are retirees or disabled, plus some stay-at-home moms and dads, but even subtracting them from the population leaves a lot of people who just ain't workin.

bag of tricks

In the 80's Reagan reclassified catsup as a vegetable so federal lunch programs could save money by skimping on nutrition for poor children.
They also changed how basic accounting was done to shield the collapse of the U.S. economy.
The fake unemployment figure is one of the last vestiges of the smoke and mirrors of voodoo economics aka the trickle down theory aka all for me and none for you

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