UN says AIDS deaths at new high

By John Donnelly, Globe Staff, 11/26/2003

PRETORIA -- The global AIDS epidemic is entering its deadliest phase so far, with high numbers of new HIV infections being matched by an unprecedented number of deaths in many southern African nations, according to a United Nations report released yesterday.

Saying there were no signs of the epidemic abating, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, or UNAIDS, found that one out of every five adults in southern Africa is infected with HIV and that two countries, Botswana and Swaziland, recorded an astounding infection rate of 39 percent of adults last year.

UNAIDS estimated that a record 3 million people will die this year from AIDS-related illnesses, a 10 percent jump from 2002 estimates, and a record 5 million people will become infected with HIV, which causes AIDS.

"The epidemic continues to deepen, to expand, and it is tightening its grip on southern Africa and threatening Southeast Asia," Peter Piot, UNAIDS executive director, told reporters in a conference call from London.

The numbers of those infected in southern Africa, he said, are "a really dramatic illustration how the epidemic is further eroding this part of the continent." Piot also said he was worried about the spread of the virus in China, India, and Russia, in particular. He pointed out that Russia was spending only a "few million dollars" a year on AIDS, while the billion-plus populations of both China and India mean that if the epidemic crosses the 1 percent threshold in those countries, more than 20 million people will be infected.Now, an estimated 40 million people are infected worldwide, according to the report, 7.4 million in Asia alone.The report, released six days before World AIDS Day, also reflected a growing caution about estimating the numbers of those who are infected or have died from the disease. Some critics, pointing to poor record-keeping throughout sub-Saharan Africa, have cast doubt on previous estimates of the impact of AIDS, impact, saying they were vastly inflated.

This year's report, based on data collected from pregnant women at prenatal clinics and from door-to-door surveys in at least seven nations, estimated that the number of people infected was between 34 million and 46 million worldwide. The report selected the midpoint between the estimates, or 40 million. Last year, UNAIDS estimated that 42 million worldwide were infected with HIV or AIDS.

Piot and Karen Stanecki, chief demographer for UNAIDS, stood strongly behind the numbers and stressed that this year's lower estimate did not mean that the epidemic was declining, but rather reflected more accurate statistics gathered in the past year. In particular, demographic studies taken in rural areas found that previous reports had overestimated prevalence rates in those areas.