And Michael Kinsley isn't making an economic argument either

At least he admits it in the very first paragraph, though.



Free Trade But . . .

By Michael Kinsley
Friday, January 9, 2004; Page A17

One of the tiresome conceits of political debate is that when opponents agree on something, it is more likely to be true. Another is that an assertion is more credible if it comes from someone who used to assert the opposite.

…The core of free-trade theory is the concept of "comparative advantage." Schumer and Roberts make the classic college-student mistake of confusing comparative advantage with absolute advantage. Nations trade because for each one, there are goods or services it is more efficient to buy from abroad than to produce at home. If there is nothing America can offer the world that is either uniquely desirable or cheaper than elsewhere, the world will not buy anything from America. And after a while, the world won't sell anything to America either, because we won't have the foreign currency to pay for it. So even in this extreme case, there is no need to restrict trade, because trade will restrict itself. But in fact, as Ricardo demonstrated, there will always be something worth trading. Even if Nation A can produce both apples and oranges more efficiently than Nation B, it will still make sense to concentrate on producing one fruit and import the other[P6: Why?]. And Nation B will make itself poorer, not richer, by keeping out fruit from Nation A. If Nation A retaliates by keeping out fruit from Nation B -- and why shouldn't it? -- Nation B will be doubly punished.

…Traditionally, the most troublesome thing about free trade -- apart from the difficulty of convincing people that it works -- is the unequal distribution of its benefits. The whole country is better off, but there are winners and losers. Generally, the losers are lower-income workers, whose jobs are the easiest to duplicate in less developed countries. It seems misguided to me to avoid a policy that makes the whole nation richer because it makes some individuals poorer. With more to play with, it ought to be easy to ease the burden on free trade's losers. Of course, under a Republican administration, we don't do nearly enough of that.

…But the real difference between traditional trade in heavy, earthbound objects and 21st-century trade in weightless electronic blips, or in sheer brainpower, is that the losers in new-style trade are more likely to be people that U.S. senators and fancy economic consultants actually know. These are people with advanced degrees and high incomes. Their incomes will likely be above-average for our economy even if they are driven down by competition from poorer economies. Under these circumstances, denying the benefits of free trade to the whole nation -- and denying opportunity to the rising middle class in developing countries -- to protect the incomes of a relative few seems harder to justify, not easier, than it was back in the days when our biggest fear was Japanese cars.

Posted by Prometheus 6 on January 9, 2004 - 3:33am :: News
 
 

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> Even if Nation A can produce both apples and oranges more efficiently than Nation B, it will still make sense to concentrate on producing one fruit and import the other[P6: Why?]Whaddaya mean why? You should know this by now :-)Don't think of them in money terms, but in relative exchange rates. If you get more oranges for the same amount of apples in B, it makes sense to ship apples from A to B, exchange them for oranges THERE, and ship those oranges back to A.

Posted by  dof (not verified) on January 9, 2004 - 4:20am.

No, this one is simple, but you need numbers. I'm going to rob O'Rourke's Eat the Rich mercilessly for this, bcause his example is fresh in my mind and good.Take a hypothetical John Grisham and Courtney Love. They can both write books and songs. Each book or song is worth one Bullshit Unit (BU). Say Grisham can write 100 novels or 25 songs a year. Love can write 1 novel or 10 songs a year.If they split 50-50 for each of them, Grisham writes 50 novels and 12.5 songs, for 62.5BU. Love writes a half a novel and five songs, for 5.5BU. The total economy gets 68BU.If they both do what they are best at, Grisham writes 100 novels for 100BU, and Love writes 10 songs for 10BU. They both make more than they would if they both tried to do both, and the economy makes more (110BU vs 68BU.)

Posted by  phelps (not verified) on January 9, 2004 - 6:24am.

dof:

If you get more oranges for the same amount of apples in B
How does Nation A producing apples AND oranges more cheaply (I've decided very time I see an economic report talking about being "more efficient", I'm translating it to "cheaper") than Nation B equate to a higher apple-to-orange exchange rate in Nation B than in Nation A?

Posted by  P6 (not verified) on January 9, 2004 - 8:09am.

Phelps:That's simple, but I wonder if it's so simple as to be inapplicable. In life, SO many things would have to fall just so for it to work out that way…Basically, it would require perfect knowledge.

Posted by  P6 (not verified) on January 9, 2004 - 8:41am.

> How does Nation A producing apples AND oranges more cheaply (I've decided very time I see an economic report talking about being "more efficient", I'm translating it to "cheaper") than Nation B equate to a higher apple-to-orange exchange rate in Nation B than in Nation A?No, it's the RELATIVE efficiency that translates in a better exchange rate.If in A, producing apples and oranges take 1 and 2 labour units respectively, but in B it takes 10 and 15 labour units respectively, A will have an ABSOLUTE advantage, but B has a RELATIVE advantage in producing oranges. The exchange rate in apples for oranges will 2 to 1 in A, but only 1.5 to 1 in B. In other ways, the price of oranges expressed in apples is cheaper in B.With these numbers, it doesn't make sense at all to produce oranges in A. The labour needed to produce a single unit of oranges can be directed to produce two units of apples. These can be shipped to B and exchanged there for 1-and-a-third (should have picked better numbers) oranges there.You might say that, if production of apples and oranges in B took 10 and 20 labour units, there is no relative advantage. That is correct. however, as there are so many products to produce, and factors like geography, climate, terrain, population density all contribute ro relative efficiency, It's allmost impossible for a nation not to have a relative advantage in something.

Posted by  dof (not verified) on January 9, 2004 - 11:15pm.