These times they are a'changin
Is Recovery Without Jobs Now the Norm?
By Don Lee
Times Staff Writer
March 10, 2004
For months, economists have been reassuring Americans that the employment market drought will soon end.
With corporate profits surging and economic indicators improving, they said, it won't be long before there is a downpour of jobs. After all, history shows that strong economic growth is quickly followed by robust job creation.
With this recovery, that still hasn't happened. Most economists aren't ready to throw out the history books, but the release month after month of disappointing payroll-gains reports has raised troubling questions about whether there has been a profound change in the way the U.S. economy operates: With advances in technology, rising productivity rates and the outsourcing of work to foreign countries, more economic activity won't translate into more jobs.
"I'm growing increasingly suspicious that something more fundamental may be happening to the job market and the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a research and consulting firm in West Chester, Pa. [P6: Duh. Ya think?]
The government's latest employment report showed that employers nationwide added a puny 21,000 nonfarm jobs to payrolls in February. The California jobs report for last month, due this Friday, is likely to be as grim.
The jobless recovery, nearly 2 1/2 years old, has gone on too long to be called an anomaly or a blip, Zandi said. [P6: Duh. Ya think?] "Even if the economy finds its way and creates jobs," he added, this strange time will be remembered as "part of economic lore."
If the past pattern of growth no longer holds, the implications are enormous.
