The Republican's big advantage
Quote of note #1:
The tendency of contemporary American voters to focus so myopically on current economic conditions is eerily reminiscent of the description provided by a distinguished foreign observer of U.S. politics, Moiseide Ostrogorski, more than a century ago: "Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views. … Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages…. He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream."
Quote of note #2:
As it happens, Republican presidents have historically been remarkably successful at profiting from voters' economic forgetfulness.
Economic Amnesia Buoys Incumbents
By Larry M. Bartels
Larry M. Bartels directs the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics in Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
June 20, 2004
PRINCETON, N.J. — Sen. John Kerry was on the campaign trail last week, attacking President Bush's management of the economy. It's a tough sell, given the notable upturn in economic conditions in recent months. The government's latest figures show robust growth in disposable income and gross domestic product; jobless claims are down to pre-recession levels; the Federal Reserve said industrial production surged in May; and the Conference Board's index of leading indicators is up again.
Kerry contends that this overdue improvement from a dismal baseline is insufficient to merit Bush's reelection. As his economic advisor, Gene Sperling, put it, "If you get D-minuses for 3 1/2 years in college, one semester of a B-minus does not get you on the honor roll."
Unfortunately for Kerry, the history of economic voting in presidential elections suggests that a good semester or two is often enough to make voters overlook an otherwise undistinguished record of economic stewardship. Over the last 14 election cycles, each percentage point of real-income growth during the year of the election has translated into a substantial 4-percentage-point increase in the incumbent party's popular vote margin. But real-income growth during the earlier years of each president's term has had no effect on election outcomes. Lackluster sophomore and junior years seem to be irrelevant, as long as the economy is rolling in the months leading up to the election.
