The reason Peggy Noonan is already making excuses
Currying Favor
By Charlie Cook, National Journal
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Gallup surveys taken shortly before Edwards was chosen found that Kerry already was attracting 82 to 86 percent of the Democratic vote and was losing only 5 to 9 percent to Bush. And because Republicans are unusually galvanized this year, giving Bush 86 to 90 percent of their support, Kerry isn't likely to gain many Republican defectors. Rather, whatever gains Kerry makes are likely to be the result of independents' choosing to side with him.
After the Republican convention ends in early September, Bush will no doubt get a boost as well, though it is likely to be smaller, because incumbent bounces tend to be, and because this year there are few loose swing voters to grab. A week or 10 days after the GOP convention, the electorate should have stopped bouncing and settled back down enough for horse-race poll results to once again have some real meaning.
In the meantime, Bush has plenty of reason to worry. A three-month-long tie with a challenger is not heartening for any incumbent. Well-known, well-defined incumbents normally end up getting at most only one-quarter to one-third of the undecided vote. Voters are well acquainted with a president when a re-election campaign begins. And there is little that either party can do to alter most voters' opinions of the president at that point.
Voters who now consider themselves "undecided" have already made a tentative decision not to support the incumbent; the remaining decision is whether to vote for the main challenger.
