Civil war in Iraq is not the worst possibility

As I said before, the worst possibility is an Iraq unified against the occupation. There has always been concern about the possibility, and now it seems to be coming to pass.

Uniting To Resist?
Why violence is escalating in Iraq
By MICHAEL WARE

Intense fighting broke out last week between U.S. troops, backed by Iraqi forces, and fighters loyal to the radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. But while al-Sadr's Mahdi militia represents a serious threat to Iraq's stability, an equally vexing challenge to Iraqi order is taking shape in the Sunni Muslim — dominated area northwest of Baghdad, where Sunni terrorists, Baathists and nationalists are thriving.

These resistance groups have so far cooperated only erratically, when it suits their needs. But insurgent sources tell TIME that elements in the resistance, especially jihadis who have ties to al-Qaeda, are pushing to unite the area's disparate militants under a single command. The insurgents are working through a loose assembly of leaders known as Mujahedin Shura, often translated as "supreme council of the mujahedin." This informal group, which meets occasionally to share intelligence and tactical tips, already has a defense minister, an army chief and an operations commander of sorts. At recent meetings, insurgent leaders — including Iraqi nationalists, Baathists and sundry Sunni extremists — have debated streamlining their activities under a single leader. According to several sources involved in the movement, Syrian intelligence agents in the area, who have helped arm the groups and aided their propaganda campaigns, have also been participating in the debate.

But the resistance has its divisions — at least in part because jihadist leaders allied to al-Qaeda — linked Jordanian terrorist Abu Mousab alZarqawi, a proponent of the unified command, seem to be trying to take control. Militant sources tell TIME that their rise has alienated some insurgents, especially the Baathists and nationalists, who resent the influence of foreigners. Whoever wins, the more disturbing development is that some Iraqi jihadis, hoping to take their fight beyond Iraq's borders, are threatening to launch a terrorist campaign in the U.S. "If America continues to shield its people from the truth," says an al-Zarqawi loyalist, "we shall transport the battle to where their public cannot but see it."

Last July Citizen/Ex-Lt. Smash wrote an impassioned little piece while in Iraq about staying the course. The quote that brought the post to my attention was this:

It really all boils down to this:

Just about everyone here would rather be at home right now—but nobody wants to go home a loser.

If we gave in to the snivelers and peaceniks who cry, “Bring our troops home now!” Iraq would undoubtedly descend into a bloody civil war, and God only knows who would come out on top. Saddam might even emerge from hiding, claiming to have driven the “infidels” out of his country. The United States would have suffered another black eye, and our enemies would be further emboldened to attack us again. We would have lost the war, and all of the brave Americans and British who gave their lives in this operation would have died in vain.

I am not willing to accept that scenario. You shouldn’t be, either.

We are seeing the result of continued war in support of the national ego:

  • One cannot but call a popular insurrection against the installed government a civil war
  • The United States is suffering black eye after black eye. And not all the black eyes it deserves

    Umm Hassen had been telling the story up until that moment, M. was only nodding her head in agreement and listening raptly, like it was someone else's story. She continued it from there… M. and her mother were taken to the airport for interrogation. M. remembers being in a room, with a bag over her head and bright lights above. She claimed she could see the shapes of figures through the little holes in the bag. She was made to sit on her knees, in the interrogation room while her mother was kicked and beaten to the ground.

    M.'s hands trembled as she held the cup of tea Umm Hassen had given her. Her face was very pale as she said, "I heard my mother begging them to please let me go and not hurt me… she told them she'd do anything- say anything- if they just let me go." After a couple hours of general abuse, the mother and daughter were divided, each one thrown into a seperate room for questioning. M. was questioned about everything concerning their family life- who came to visit them, who they were related to and when and under what circumstances her father had died. Hours later, the mother and daughter were taken to the infamous Abu Ghraib prison- home to thousands of criminals and innocents alike.

    In Abu Ghraib, they were seperated and M. suspected that her mother was taken to another prison outside of Baghdad. A couple of terrible months later- after witnessing several beatings and the rape of a male prisoner by one of the jailors- in mid-January, M. was suddenly set free and taken to her uncle's home where she found her youngest brother waiting for her. Her uncle, through some lawyers and contacts, had managed to extract M. and her 15-year-old brother from two different prisons. M. also learned that her mother was still in Abu Ghraib but they weren't sure about her three brothers.

    M. and her uncle later learned that a certain neighbor had made the false accusation against her family. The neighbor's 20-year-old son was still bitter over a fight he had several years ago with one of M.'s brothers. All he had to do was contact a certain translator who worked for the troops and give M.'s address. It was that easy.

    Abu Hassen was contacted by M. and her uncle because he was an old family friend and was willing to do the work free of charge. They have been trying to get her brothers and mother out ever since. I was enraged- why don't they contact the press? Why don't they contact the Red Cross?! What were they waiting for?! She shook her head sadly and said that they *had* contacted the Red Cross but they were just one case in thousands upon thousands- it would take forever to get to them. As for the press- was I crazy? How could she contact the press and risk the wrath of the American authorities while her mother and brothers were still imprisoned?! There were prisoners who had already gotten up to 15 years of prison for 'acting against the coallition'... she couldn't risk that. They would just have to be patient and do a lot of praying.

    By the end of her tale, M. was crying silently and my mother and Umm Hassen were hastily wiping away tears. All I could do was repeat, "I'm so sorry... I'm really sorry..." and a lot of other useless words. She shook her head and waved away my words of sympathy, "It's ok- really- I'm one of the lucky ones... all they did was beat me."

  • Our enemies have been further emboldened to attack us.
  • Since the day Citizen/Ex-Lt. Smash wrote that entry there have been 807 strictly military casulaties…638 from the US Military. Five thousand two hundred thirty three wounded. And though I have considerably less sympathy for them than for the soldiers, 125 contractors acknowledged dead or missing. As much detail on those figures as you like…far more than I like…is available here.

The Lieutenant-Citizen was right to this degree: I am not willing to accept that scenario. You shouldn’t be, either. And as I said at the time:

You can add, "Remember who got you in this predicament. Remember that you wouldn't be at risk were ot not for what has basically proven to be lies told by this administration for arcane reasons known only to themselves. Remember who set things up such that American pride, honor and world influence can only be preserved at the expense of American lives… and remember that it was not necessary."

This is not about being a sniveller or peacenik. This is about the fact that the anarchy you fear will descend on Iraq would never have come to pass but for an interventionist war that has not yet been justified. A war that, as time passes, looks more and more to have been created out of whole cloth by a criminal exploitation of illegitimately gained power.

That's not what you are defending, I know that.

But dammit, it better not be what you defend when you vote, either.

Posted by Prometheus 6 on August 15, 2004 - 8:41am :: War