I've decided I don't know enough about the falling dollar to speak much on it

Submitted by Prometheus 6 on November 21, 2004 - 2:10pm.
on Economics
I know Germany is considering pretty much abandoning the U.S. capital markets. They say it's just as easy and less stressful to raise capital elsewhere. That would be bad. I know that even discussing the possibility of a run on dollars means things are really iffy. I know the handling (or non-handling) of any future invasions and the national debt and deficit will be what the world watches. What I don't know, given that it's human reactions more than rational economic considerations that drive decisions, is what is the tipping point? Worldwide effects of sinking dollar Its decline to a nine-year low is impacting everything from the price of goods at Wal-Mart to the vigor of Europe's economy. By David R. Francis | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor The sinking US dollar in recent weeks has raised what is suddenly a top concern from Washington to Berlin and Beijing: Is America's currency undergoing a benign adjustment or a precipitous plunge? So far, the dollar's slide to nine-year lows doesn't reflect panic. But some analysts say a run on the dollar is possible. And even an orderly drop could affect everything from mortgages to prices at Wal-Mart. The good news for Americans: It's getting easier for manufacturers to sell products overseas, and more likely that tourists from Germany will flock to US National Parks. But the downside could be significant. America, the world's leading importer of goods, is now buying them at higher prices. And if the dollar's dive makes foreign investors wary, US interest rates may have to rise to attract buyers of federal debt. More broadly, it's a shock to the global economy. Sunday in Germany, officials from the Group of 20 industrial and major developing countries called for the United States to cut its federal deficit, which is seen as a key factor in the dollar's fall.

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Submitted by James R MacLean on November 22, 2004 - 3:23am.

In order to get some clues, I recommend "The US as a Net Debtor" (PDF) by Roubini & Setser. I found out about it at Brad DeLong’s (“Absolutely indispensible”). Also, I’ve posted about this (Although I’m not sure how help you’d find what I wrote). The Germans are, of course, major exporters of capital, so they have no problem raising capital on any markets. As for investing abroad or buying securities, it would appear that about half of the the portfolio investment or debt sales for the USA come from Asian countries anyway.

Submitted by Prometheus 6 on November 22, 2004 - 11:24am.

That's going to be useful.Â

Submitted by James R MacLean on November 22, 2004 - 11:46am.

Roubini & Setser (p.14-15): Because an overwhelming share of U.S. foreign equity assets are in Europe, the fall in the dollar relative to the major European currencies had a major impact on the value of US assets abroad (just as the rise in the dollar in 2001 reduced the value of U.S. assets abroad). Indeed, since Europe accounts for a much larger share of the US foreign equity investments than of  U.S. trade, the recent adjustment against the Euro had a big and immediate impact on the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP)…

In a sense, by adjusting against the Euro area but not against the Asian area (BIS, 2004), the dollar adjusted in a way that delivered the biggest possible valuation gains to existing U.S. external assets while offering the prospect of only relatively modest gains in the current account. A comparable adjustment against the major Asian currencies would not deliver comparable valuation gains.

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                                                                  2003 data

FDI18

% in Europe                                                       54%

% in Europe, Canada and Australia          67%

Portfolio Equity

% in Europe                                                       56%

% in Europe, Canada, Australia                   63%

U.S. trade

% with Europe                                                  22%

% with Europe, Canada and Australia      43%

Â

-----------------------------------------------

18 Data from BEA. Data on the country by country breakdown of U.S. FDI is only available on a historical cost basis. See Abaroa, “The International Investment Position of the United States at Year End 2003,” Survey of Current Business, July 2004; and Borga and Yorgason, “Direct Investment Positions for 2003: Country and Industry Detail (PDF)” Survey of Current Business, July 2004.

Submitted by James R MacLean on November 22, 2004 - 12:14pm.

The above passage is from Roubini and Setser, footnote, table, and all.Â

There are basically three elements you seem to be interested in: one, the connection between the public debt (up 2.3 trillion since Bush took office)Â and the net international investment position (NIIP) of the USA; two, the role of different regions (e.g., the EU, North East Asia, OPEC) on holdings of US debt & securities abroad; three, the ultimate adjustment process.Â

Adjustment: "When will the Dam Break", "Marshall-Lerner Conditions need not apply,"Â Hobson's Choice;