"Private and government economists" are almost inevitably type two economists, i.e., salespeople.

Risks Cloud a Sunny Forecast
Job Picture Looking Up, Dollar Down
By Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 2, 2005; Page F01

The U.S. job market should improve steadily this year, while consumer inflation eases and oil prices decline -- all good news, that is, if nothing goes wrong with the sunny economic forecasts released in recent weeks by many private and government economists.

The economy should continue to expand at a pace that is "not too hot . . . not too cold . . . just right," Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, the St. Louis-based forecasting firm, wrote in a recent report to clients, lifting a line from the Goldilocks tale.

But, of course, forecasts often go awry.

"Lest we be too complacent about the future, we need only remember that the story ended with Goldilocks running screaming from the three bears' house," the firm said, citing several risks to its projections.