Still think those economic numbers are a good basis for setting policy?

Submitted by Prometheus 6 on September 5, 2004 - 6:39am.
on

via It's Still The Economy, Stupid comes word of a series I really hope runs to completion. Seems policy is a better basis for setting the numbers than vice versa.

A Primer on Government Economic Reports -- Things You've Probably Suspected But Were Perhaps Afraid to Ask!"
"Employment and Unemployment Reporting"
(Installment One in a Series)

By Walter J. "John" Williams

Series Introducion

In 1996 -- the middle of the Clinton economic miracle -- the Kaiser Foundation conducted a survey of the American public that purported to show how out of touch the electorate was with economic reality. Most Americans thought inflation and unemployment were much higher, and economic growth was much weaker, than reported by the government. The Washington Post bemoaned the economic ignorance of the public. The same results would be found today.

Neither the Kaiser Foundation nor the Post understood that there was and still is good reason for the gap between common perceptions and government reporting: government data are biased in politically correct directions and increasingly have diverged from common experience and reality since the mid-1980s. Inflation and unemployment reports are understated, while employment and other economic data are overstated, deliberately.

For several years, I conducted surveys among business economists as to how they viewed the quality of government economic data. The following were actual comments:

· The senior economist of a major retail company told me, "Quality varies. The retail sales numbers are terrible, but money supply data are great."

· The senior economist at a major bank offered, "There's a problem with money supply, but I think retail sales are pretty good."

The point is that when an economist knows a sector well, he also recognizes the limitations and distortions of related economic reporting. Gathering and reporting accurate information on a timely (one-month) basis for components of the U.S. economy is nearly impossible. Nonetheless, most career government statisticians in Washington work diligently to provide the best information possible within the limits of the existing reporting system. A number of reporting distortions, however, are not accidental.

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Submitted by Pacific Views (not verified) on September 5, 2004 - 5:39pm.

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Submitted by Pacific Views (not verified) on September 11, 2004 - 2:04pm.

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