“This study fits within a relatively new field of research which connects motivations of individual people to their collective behaviour,” says Turchin.

“One wishes that members of the Bush administration had known about this research before they initiated invasion of Iraq three years ago,” he adds. “I think it would be fair to say that the general opinion of political scientists is that the Bush administration was overconfident of victory, and that the Iraq war is a debacle.”

Overconfidence is a disadvantage in war, finds study
00:01 21 June 2006
NewScientist.com news service
Roxanne Khamsi

Overconfident people are more likely to wage war but fare worse in the ensuing battles, a new study suggests. The research on how people approach a computer war game backs up a theory that “positive illusions” may contribute to costly conflicts.

“It supplies critically needed experimental support for the idea that positive attitude - which is generally a [beneficial] feature of human behaviour - may lead to overconfidence and [damaging] behaviour in the case of war,” comments Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut, US.

Previous work has suggested that mentally healthy people can have highly optimistic predictions, or “positive illusions”. This optimism may have offered an evolutionary advantage in the past, allowing our ancestors to cope with adversity and bluff opponents.

But in the present day this optimism may wreak havoc on international relations, argue the researchers, who conducted computer simulations to test their hypothesis.