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Manufacturing returns to the USofASubmitted by Prometheus 6 on May 17, 2006 - 8:37am.
on Economics
Honda to build new plants in Japan, US, Canada
Tue May 16, 2006 11:22 PM ET He said he could not yet disclose its location. Honda will also build a new 200,000 unit per year engine plant in Canada for $140 million, to start production in 2008. It will employ about 340 workers and will be located near an existing plant in Ontario. Fukui told a mid-year news conference the new car assembly plant in Japan will start operating in 2010 with an annual capacity of 200,000 units. The plant, in Saitama, near Tokyo, will have 2,200 workers and will raise its capacity in Japan to 1.5 million units a year from 1.3 million. He also said Honda would sell a new, low-cost hybrid car in 2009. It targets annual sales of 200,000 units of the family-use hybrid. The chart above compares capacity utilization in manufacturing to changes in the multifactor productivity (MFP) index. The MFP measures the output per combined labor and capital inputs; the 2nd derivative, i.e., the rate of increase, reflects the rate at which technology is being implemented to enhance output. As you may notice, sometimes technology "moves backwards" (1972-74, 88-92) because the prior technological base has suddenly become untenable (such as an increase in the price of fossil fuels, or the enhanced ability of non-US producers to compete). MFP is a much more useful measure of the performance of the economy than labor productivity. An increase in labor productivity may well be the result of managers replacing workers with machinery (as, for example, in Western European countries where unemployment AND labor productivity growth is high). Also, please notice that the MFP index does not sink merely because the rate of utilization has fallen. MFP measures the productivity of utilized resources, as opposed to ALL resources. Here's my next chart:
Observe this chart has two scales; the left scale is manufacturing employment in millions of workers. The stunning thing about this scale is the devastating decline in manufacturing jobs. The 1980-1983 recession, the worst since WW2, rolled back 18 years worth of job growth in manufacturing; the 5 years of GWB has rolled back 56 years worth. But notice there is little change in MFP growth (the 2001 downturn was a hiccup; post-2002 results for the rest of the economy suggest growth has contined its pre-2000 trend). Unit labor costs, despite soaring medical insurance premiums, are only 2% above 1992 levels, so that is not a useful explanation. The comparatively low wages prevalent in US manufacturing have led to comparatively lower substitution of capital for labor. This is not necessarily a bad thing, since a larger human share of productivity means greater potential flexiblity, and a more even distribution of wages among different productive sectors. However, a point has to be made: utilization in US industry has not declined; employment has. Durable goods orders have not declined; employment has. In fact, measured by durable goods orders, US industry has been booming. This, despite a huge trade deficit chiefly in durable goods. Upshot: The economy is doing fine as long as you don't take human factors and dormant resources into account. I really wish folks would deal with economic statistics as hints instead of rules. It's obvious we need some kind of guidance but it's just as obvious we only measure
Here's a fairly straightforward explanation of TFP (MFP) posted at the [UK] National Statistics page:
I've been hunting for comparable statistics for other countries. I'll get back to this ASAP. Upshot: The economy is doing fine as long as you don't take human factors and dormant resources into account. I ought to write a post on the problems with the expression, "the economy is doing fine," or "good for the economy," or "the economy grew by x percent last year." The gist of it would be the error of using "economy" as a synonym for "industrial system." In the 19th century, economists distinguished between the two. The "economy" is simply the space in which production and transactions take place. An "industrial system" is a process of converting inputs into outputs, and using the outputs to secure possession of future inputs. This means that there are multiple industrial systems within an economy, and they adhere to different rules from each other or from the economy. All of this is stuff that is well-known to you. I think our problem is the growth of perverse industrial systems. The gist of it would be the error of using "economy" as a synonym for "industrial system." In the 19th century, economists distinguished between the two. Well, I only started paying attention a couple of years ago, and at a less than professional level at that. I can see it being a useful distinction, though.
Yes. Not perverse as in "Grand Theft Auto nudity," but perverse in that their entire reason to exist is to generate cash flow rather than value/wealth. Companies that buy and exploit patents, for instance, add...massively...to GNP without creating a bit of value. That's a problem in the economy, but it's a social problem because folks engage in social engineering to optimize the statistics. I'd prefer the industries die for lack of support. |
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I was a little curious to see how seriously manufacturing employment had been hit in the USA so I did a little digging. Here's my first chart (all data from FRED II, St. Louis Federal Reserve):