imho, Kagan needs to look at the force requirements to contain a civil war in the four provinces. I think it'd work.

Define 'work.'

Do refugees get to leave the provinces or are they trapping in a civil war between forces we've both instigated an armed? If they can leave, how do you tell them from the insurgents and civil warriors? 

Refugees are those who just want to get the hell out of the way.