I promised myself not to make this prediction in 2004 because it's close enough to the nominating convention that folks will remember if I'm wrong. But even with Dean's lead in the polls I still feel no one will lock it down before the the convention. And if that does happen, a Draft Gore movement will be hard to resist.
Gore's presentation skills have apparently improved. His early endorsement of Dean positions him favorably in the eyes of Dean supporters (Dean/Gore '04? nahhh…). And Clark as VP would lock down the Clinton Camp. Dean could stump all over the South and take all the heat over Confederate flags and such.
Race Tightens in Final Days of Iowa Battle
By CARL HULSE
DES MOINES, Jan. 15 — The Democratic presidential field shrank by one on Thursday, but the race for the Iowa caucuses appeared unusually wide open going into the final weekend.
Pollsters, aides to the rival campaigns and one of the candidates said that Howard Dean, Richard A. Gephardt, John Kerry and John Edwards were all in contention and that the race was volatile.
"It's a four-way tie," Dr. Dean said in a call to CNN's "Larry King Live." "We can't tell who's going to win. All we can do now is work our you-know-whats off."
Ben Foecke, caucus director for the Iowa Democratic Party, said, "This thing is absolutely up for grabs."
I agree with your overall prediction. I think that Dean's support is soft and that he may be overtaken by another candidate. Right now, I feel that Clark is the most likely beneficiary. But Dean has enough money, resources, and momentum to keep the race close.
It sounds like you're suggesting that Gore will come in at the convention rather than during the primaries. If the Democrats nominate a candidate who didn't take part in the primaries, I'm voting Green. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. I will not vote for a party that does that.